Here’s what’s ahead for U.S. manufacturing this year — and my scorecard from 2024:

Best (old) quote from 2024:  “…It is necessary for the prime contractor to provide on-site quality, supplier-management, and sometimes technical support. If this is not done, the performance of the prime manufacturer can never exceed the capabilities of the least proficient of the suppliers.” 

Boeing and the Dark Age of American Manufacturing, Jerry Useem, The Atlantic, quoting Boeing engineer L. J. Hart-Smith’s prescient 2001 memo.

 

2025 5 Sure Bets:

1. U.S. manufacturing employment surges past 13 million for the first time since November 2008. In August 2022 I wrote “that automation and technology transforming U.S. manufacturing will catalyze employment growth in the sector, not diminish it, which is today conventional wisdom.” Employment has stalled at roughly 12.8 million jobs since but will pick up steam in ’25 — even if the full impact of revitalized community college enrollment won’t be felt until ’26 or ’27.
2. U.S. contract manufacturers grab the spotlight. Boeing failed its stakeholders by failing its contract manufacturers (read L. J. Hart-Smith, above) — not because it outsourced production. U.S. brands turn to co-mans to reshore, innovate, and recapture their American-made chops.
3. Intel leans into Foundry Services. I’m no expert on Intel’s imminent restructuring, but outside the company the consensus seems clear: lean into Intel Foundry Services and expand, not diminish, U.S.-owned chip manufacturing. Voices fret that Intel’s board will fully outsource production to new TSMC fabs and others, but a gift of 8.5 billion U.S. taxpayer dollars ensures it continues its legacy as advanced manufacturer.
4. Tariffs are here to stay and gloom forecasts are overblown. President Trump’s tariff threats are a negotiating ploy — and his trade team builds on Robert Lighthizer’s pro-manufacturing vision in Trump II. Call me an optimist.
5. Space X flies too close to the sun. The world’s most consequential manufacturer may as well be an emerging nation-state. Today its launch capabilities surpass every earthly superpower. Musk hits a speed-bump in ‘25 as lawmakers fret about national security — like here.

2024 Scorecard: Sure Bets

1. Tariffs are sustained. Other pro-manufacturing measures are stymied in ’24.
2. Brand power: Local manufacturers elevate their brands to win.
3. Space Command re-re-locates as workforce investments payoff.
4. Five CHIPs Act-inspired Regional Innovation Hub winners are…
5. Twitter/X: the new voice of Musk’s Industrial Complex.

Wins:

• A year ago, I argued that it’s difficult to be anti-tariff and pro-manufacturing and that President Biden would sustain Trump’s tariff regime. Check.

• I guessed Isuzu’s Trooper would resurface and that signature brands would carry manufacturers through tough times. No Trooper in ’24, but we saw International’s dormant Scout SUV reappear. Dub.

• I wrote that Twitter/X would continue to morph into a “bullhorn” for Musk’s social and commercial interests — akin to William Randolph Hearst’s newspapers in the 20’s. Free speech? Please.

Losses:

• I may have been a year early in forecasting that Space Command would return to Alabama.

• In the CHIPs contest for Regional Innovation Hubs, I guessed correctly on two-of-five locations from 30+ nominations — and was wrong (kind of) on Colorado’s quantum computing bid. A good effort overall, but I’ll take the L.

Bart Taylor is a Moss Adams BDE and founder and former publisher of CompanyWeek Manufacturing Media. Reach him at bart.taylor@mossadams.com.