The Year in Manufacturing: Hits and Misses from 2023’s Five Sure Bets

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It’s time to revisit my annual forecast from a year ago – including an Elon Musk guess – to own-up to the misses and revel in my prescience. I’ll forecast the year ahead for manufacturing next time.

My fab five from last year:

  1. 2023 is the year of the semiconductor supply chain – who builds a roadmap that wins?

First, this was a terrible “forecast”. I’ll pass on open-ended questions in ‘24, even if the answer in ‘23 was straightforward: no state has built a semiconductor roadmap, yet, to be copied or that ensures success. I’ll tease my ‘24 forecast with this observation: whoever develops an advanced manufacturing workforce will win. There’s still confusion about how to do this – but states like Maryland and cities like St. Louis are cracking the code by making direct investments in equipment to uptool manufacturers, and training a new generation of employees in new advanced manufacturing centers of excellence.

Score: Miss

  1. More engineers will be hired in manufacturing than ever before (who’s counting?)

Again, tough to score. The simple answer is probably yes: manufacturing companies interest engineers and STEM grads more than at any time this century. 

But touring one of Colorado’s new and highly automated food factories, as I did earlier this month, tells me that as many current employees will likely be promoted to man the modern, gamified equipment that will festoon tomorrow’s factories, as degreed engineers. Which in my book is a win: let’s upskill current employees to meet the demand for qualified workers, first.

I’ll borrow the halo – and take the Dub.

Score: Hit

  1. 2023 will be a rough year for outdoor industry superpowers.

From a numbers standpoint, the stock market surge late in the year saved many blue-chip apparel and outdoor gear companies from a disastrous financial outcome in 2023. 

That said, as creative and innovative many OI brands are, the industry continues its race to the bottom – an embrace of high-volume, low-cost models – that floods the market with cheap products manufactured offshore, many destined for the landfill. How many “sale” racks of cheap outerwear can a person sort through?

I’ll celebrate many a domestic brand that pushes back on this model, lament the state of much of the industry along with Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard, and hope we rally around leaders that find a way to travel the last mile to manufacture in the U.S. – the sure way to upend the status quo. 

Score: Hit 

  1. EV infrastructure and the Great Leap forward.

Ugh. Some progress was made in improving EV infrastructure: Ford embraced Tesla’s charging standard, which eased the pain of Ford CEO Jim Farly’s misadventure driving his Lightning F150 across California.  

But generally, outcomes don’t match stated intentions and future plans. I’m not suggesting I have the answer – I’m not an EV driver. Nor do I buy into political moves to undermine efforts to usher in an EV revolution. EV efforts have revolutionized automotive manufacturing and forced other industries to reconsider just how much of any product can be manufactured in the U.S. (Thank you Elon Musk.) But still.

Score: Miss

  1. Musk’s distractions will diminish his manufacturing influence. Sadly.

Speaking of the enigmatic Musk, I forecast a year ago that Twitter was a “distraction (that) will limit Elon Musk’s ability to lead the manufacturing revolution.”

This may yet be the case. Musk is in over his head when lecturing on free speech and advertising “boycotts” – silly, self-serving tangents that also diminish the credibility of fans who parrot his pronouncements.

But no need to defend the indefensible. SpaceX is the most compelling manufacturer in the world – having in 2023 established itself as an American monopoly in launch and lift capabilities at a time when the U.S. desperately needed it.  Musk, SpaceX, Tesla: more influential in manufacturing than ever.

Score: Miss

Scorecard: 2-3. I hope to do better next year.

Bart Taylor is a Moss Adams BDE and founder and former publisher of CompanyWeek manufacturing media. Reach him at bart.taylor@mossadams.com.